Like all other stocks, VRNOF stock has fallen lately. Short sellers have gotten in and sold off the OTC stocks, tripping stop losses, and pushing MSOS much lower. But, this is merely a game that will be ended soon with higher liquidity. Several Canadian players are switching up to TSX in lieu of the Canadian Stock Exchange, Verano’s shares are ones that are transitioning. This will mean higher volume & liquidity and more institutional players getting involved. This will be more supportive of the industry overall.
In the meantime, the US MSOs are getting hammered because short sellers are taking advantage of the current situation. But, with November 27th rolling around, the US stocks will likely see the markets shoot back up on the announcement. Then, I expect more selling to ensue again.
In the meantime, when you look at VRNOF stock, this is a company that is continually growing and will add significant investor value over the years. My attitude: Buy on the dips.
Above, you can see that if Verano Holdings hits its mark, they will be able to add continuous revenue. Keep in mind that after the US reschedules to Schedule III, this will add even more to the bottom line along with a top line that is continually expanding at a rapid pace. The change of nearly $100M additional revenue in 2024 represents revenue growth of ~30%. That well outpaces the broader stocks within the US economy. Then, in 2025 analysts expect and additional $110M in revenue – about the same increase.
Assuming Verano can keep its operating costs at a minimum with the advances in revenue, operating profits will move upward. This will also propel profit margins upward.
EBITDA Revenue Percentage
I am looking for EBITDA profits to advance significantly over the next two years as revenue continually increases. For now, EBITDA profits are ~35% of revenue. This outperforms the broader stock market on a percentage basis. But, once you factor in the growth in revenue and economies of scale, EBITDA profits could accelerate further. Then, with removing 280E factors, net earnings are likely to shoot positive and upward. Overall, in the following years I expect a lot more progress with the industry. The foundations have been built and an upcoming, more positive investing environment will push stocks further as additional investors start to move in to the industry.
The moves down, for me, are an opportunity to load up on options dated after the November 27th deadline for the DEA to respond to the HHS recommendation. I have noticed a large quantity of November 15th, $7.50 calls that are being carried by a major player. This will likely be challenged as the short player gets back out of that position that drove these stocks lower. It’s a game. I’m playing along with it.
Fundamentally, however, everything remains the same. The industry is on a strong foundation and there will be consistent investment in the industry. As these stocks transition off of entry-level stock exchanges and on to the bigger exchanges, liquidity will increase and the ability to be manipulated by these players will fall to the side.
For now, I look at Verano Holdings as a buy at this level as there is preparation for these final moves and then Verano up-listing to Nasdaq over OTC. Verano is going to continue to add value with increasing revenue and profits will ensue.
Then, there is always the chance that Florida adds adult-use to the ballot. Verano has a solid position in Florida. This would be yet, another game-changer for the industry.